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Best Prediction Markets
Prediction markets are exploding in popularity, quickly evolving from niche forecasting tools into giant, legitimate trading venues.
These days, investors can predict a massive number of events including inflation, employment, rate cuts or political events, all without complex derivatives or leverage.
Below, we’ve reviewed the leading prediction market platforms currently available, with a focus on financially oriented markets and compliance with global regulations.
Best Prediction Market Sites in February 2026
Kalshi
Fortunly's Rating: Our editorial team determines the rating based on a set of evaluation criteria developed for each product and service category.
Kalshi represents the first major step toward institutional-grade prediction trading in the United States. Fully regulated by the CFTC, it operates like a traditional exchange where traders buy and sell contracts tied to measurable events — inflation data, GDP releases, rate decisions, and more. Its well-defined market rulebooks, audited clearing process, and event-based liquidity make it the go-to destination for traders who treat probability as a financial instrument rather than speculation.
- •Fixed-risk, exchange-cleared event contracts with institutional pricing transparency
- •Detailed market rulebooks and verifiable settlement sources for every event
- •Active macro markets with near-real-time repricing around major data releases
IBKR ForecastTrader
Fortunly's Rating: Our editorial team determines the rating based on a set of evaluation criteria developed for each product and service category.
ForecastTrader brings event-driven contracts into a professional brokerage environment. Integrated into the Interactive Brokers platform, it lets clients trade on economic and climate outcomes alongside futures, stocks, and options. The product offers institutional settlement, automated interest on collateral balances, and charting tools that transform each economic release into a quantifiable market opportunity, all within a single brokerage interface.
- •Integrated with IBKR’s multi-asset platform
- •One account to manage stocks, options, futures and event predictions
- •Detailed analytics and charting tools integrated with event-market order flow
Robinhood
Fortunly's Rating: Our editorial team determines the rating based on a set of evaluation criteria developed for each product and service category.
Robinhood has expanded beyond commission-free stock trading into event contracts and futures through its partnership with Kalshi, allowing retail users to speculate on macro, political, and even sports outcomes. Its user-friendly interface makes it easy to speculate on economic or policy outcomes using the same balance used for equities and options.
- •Multi-asset platform with event contracts
- •24-hour weekday trading window and simple mobile event-order placement
- •Free market-data tools
Webull
Fortunly's Rating: Our editorial team determines the rating based on a set of evaluation criteria developed for each product and service category.
Webull extends its zero-commission brokerage model to event-based markets, giving retail traders the ability to react instantly to macroeconomic releases or market movements. Integrated probability charts, push alerts, and low trade thresholds make it a practical tool for active traders seeking short-term exposure around scheduled data events.
- •Event contracts integrated with stock and crypto trading
- •Push alerts and probability charts around key macro events
- •Flexible order sizes and instant ACH deposits
NinjaTrader
Fortunly's Rating: Our editorial team determines the rating based on a set of evaluation criteria developed for each product and service category.
NinjaTrader caters to the advanced trader who values precision, speed, and control. It connects directly to CME Group’s infrastructure, offering event and futures contracts through a professional desktop suite known for its analytics depth and algorithmic flexibility. With millisecond execution, custom automation, and competitive commission tiers, NinjaTrader empowers users to treat event trading as a data-driven extension of their broader futures strategy.
- •Direct market access to CME event and futures contracts with millisecond execution
- •Full-suite charting, backtesting, and algorithmic-trading support
- •Tiered commission structure favoring high-volume and professional traders
Polymarket
Fortunly's Rating: Our editorial team determines the rating based on a set of evaluation criteria developed for each product and service category.
Polymarket bridges the gap between decentralized finance and information trading. Built on blockchain infrastructure and powered by USDC, it allows anyone to speculate on world events with full on-chain transparency. Its deep liquidity, rapid settlement, and open data architecture make it a favorite among traders who value accessibility, global reach, and verifiable outcomes over centralized control.
- •24/7 on-chain trading with USDC settlement and open order-book transparency
- •Vast selection of markets
- •Extremely low entry cost
How We Evaluate Event Trading Platforms
Our assessment of the prediction market platforms on this page is grounded in a detailed, comparative analysis across regulatory, financial, and usability metrics.
First and foremost, we examine regulatory compliance, which we treat as the cornerstone of our scoring framework.
Platforms registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will receive higher marks for operating within clear legal boundaries and maintaining audited settlement systems. This ensures that your capital and winnings are protected under recognized market-oversight regimes.
Next, we examine market relevance and diversity. A superior prediction market should list contracts tied to legitimate, economically meaningful data points rather than speculative trivia.
We focus heavily on financial outcomes such as inflation data, rate decisions, GDP, policy votes and so on, rewarding platforms that continuously expand their macroeconomic catalog.
Liquidity plays an equally important role. We track average daily volumes, bid-ask spreads, and order-book depth around major announcements. Platforms with active markets and tight spreads earn higher liquidity scores, as they allow for fairer, more efficient trade execution.
Exchange fees, settlement costs, brokerage commissions, and hidden withdrawal charges can significantly affect profitability. We will always favor venues with simple, transparent fee models and clear explanations of how those fees scale with volume.
Finally, we rate user experience and technological infrastructure. Reliable execution engines, intuitive interfaces, API availability, and data visualization tools contribute to a platform’s overall score.
By combining these metrics, our team produces an aggregate rating that reflects both trader confidence and operational integrity.
Top 5 Prediction Market Apps - Our Picks for 2026:
Kalshi
IBKR ForecastTrader
Robinhood
Webull
Polymarket
How Prediction Markets Work and What to Know Before Trading
Prediction markets, also known as event trading platforms, let traders speculate on the outcome of real-world events.
Instead of buying an asset like a stock or commodity, you’re buying a position in a question with a measurable result: Will inflation rise above 3% this month? Will unemployment fall below 4%? Will the next interest-rate decision result in a cut?
Each market revolves around a binary contract: Yes or No. If your prediction turns out to be correct, you earn a fixed payout. If not, you lose the amount you staked. This simple framework turns complex financial events into clear, quantifiable trading opportunities.
Understanding the Mechanics
At their core, prediction markets operate on probability pricing. Each contract trades between $0 and $1, representing the crowd’s collective estimate of how likely an event is to occur.
Your maximum profit is the difference between $1 and your purchase price. Your maximum loss is simply what you paid for the contract. There are no margin calls, leverage, or hidden exposures, but instead a clear, predefined risk-to-reward ratio.
This simplicity is one reason prediction markets are gaining traction among traders who prefer data-driven speculation over long-term investing.
If you want a more in-depth explanation, you can always consult our detailed guide on the basics of prediction markets.
Why Regulation Matters
Because prediction markets blur the line between finance and wagering, regulation is one of the most important considerations before you start trading.
In some countries, event trading is recognized as a legitimate financial activity and supervised by market regulators. In others, it’s still treated as a form of betting and subject to restrictions.
Regulated platforms operate under clear financial-market rules. They must segregate customer funds, report transactions, and maintain audited settlement systems.
Unregulated or offshore platforms may offer broader event coverage and round-the-clock access, but they carry higher legal and counterparty risk.
Before trading, always confirm that the platform you use complies with the laws of your country or state. Regulation affects not just safety, but also how your contracts settle and how disputes are resolved.
Event Resolution and Data Sources
Each contract’s outcome depends on a verified data source. For economic events, results often come from official agencies such as national statistical offices or central banks.
Political markets might rely on election commissions or certified vote counts.
Most exchanges publish detailed market rules explaining:
- What data determines settlement
- When the result becomes official
- How disputes are handled if data is delayed or revised
Traders should always read these rules before opening a position. Even a minor difference, such as using preliminary versus final economic data, can affect whether a contract resolves in your favor.
Risk and Strategy Considerations
Despite their simplicity, prediction markets are not risk-free. Price swings can be sharp as new data emerges, and traders can easily overcommit if they underestimate how quickly sentiment changes.
Here are a few principles to keep in mind:
- Start small. Since outcomes are binary, even small positions can move significantly in value.
- Diversify events. Don’t rely on a single outcome; spread exposure across different categories or timeframes.
- Be aware of information flow. Economic reports, polls, or breaking news can instantly alter probabilities.
- Avoid emotional trading. Treat contracts like financial instruments, not wagers.
Prediction markets reward analytical thinking and data interpretation more than instinct or luck.